—
(PRNewswire) — A University of Maryland study projects that Washington, D.C.,
city and federal property could suffer billions of dollars in damage if sea
level rise from global warming increases over the next century. Potential for
significant damage will be even greater in the event of extreme weather like
Hurricane Sandy.
The
study by Civil and Environmental Engineering Professor Bilal Ayyub, Haralamb
Braileanu and Naeem Qureshi, of the Clark School of Engineering's Center for
Technology and Systems Management, looks at possible long term effects of
projected sea level rise on Washington, D.C. real-estate property and
government infrastructure. They conclude that over the next 100 years,
continuing sea level rise could cause damages of more than $24.6 billion to
Washington's commercial property, museums, and government agencies.
The
study, "Prediction and Impact of Sea Level Rise on Properties and
Infrastructure of Washington, D.C.," appears in the November 2012 issue of
Risk Analysis, published by the Society for Risk Analysis. Current trends and
predicted increases suggest the nation's capital is likely to face flooding and
infrastructure damage brought about by sea level rise linked to thermal
expansion of the oceans and melting of global ice sheets caused by global
warming.
"Climate
change not only results in increasing the sea level but also the annual rate
and intensity of storms," says Ayyub. "Our loss predictions at high
sea levels are partly intended to account for these extreme storms. However,
due to lack of information available to us, they underestimate direct losses by
not considering, for example, underground utilities, or including economic
valuations of interruption of business and government operations."
Bolling,
FBI, IRS
Using
Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, data from government agencies and
real-estate listings for property values, the University of Maryland
researchers compared their results to models on sea level rise generated by
authoritative international bodies and experts.
The
results, based on what the authors say may be an optimistic model, show that
the current rate of sea level rise in Washington, D.C., is about 3.16
millimeters per year. At the low levels of increase expected in the near
future, sea level rise would lead to a minimal loss of city area. However, if
sea level rises 0.1 meters by the year 2043, flooding about 103 properties and
other infrastructure, damages would cost the city about $2.1 billion. Bolling
Air Force Base would have 23 buildings impacted.
If
sea level rise were to reach 5.0 meters over the next 100 years, the authors
warn of significant damages, in excess of $24.6 billion, to commercial
buildings, military installations, museums and government agencies, including
the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Justice Department, the Internal
Revenue Service, the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Education.
Extreme
Weather Effects
While
a long-term rise of 5.0 meters is considered unlikely, it may represent storm
surges and waves created by extreme storms such as Hurricane Sandy, Tropical
Storm Isabel in 2003, and the high tides and rains in April 2011, which
triggered waterfront flooding in the city and Northern Virginia.
The
study recommends that "Decisions must be made in the near future by
lawmakers or city planners on how to reduce the impact of and adapt to sea
level rise. Cost-effective methods to deal with sea level rise should be
developed, and long-term solutions that extend well into this millennium are
necessary."
The
full study is available
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01710.x/full.
The
University of Maryland is a public research university located in the city of
College Park just outside Washington, D.C. The University of Maryland was
founded in 1856 and is the flagship institution of the University System of
Maryland. As a Public Ivy institution, it has a fall 2010 enrollment of more
than 37,000 students, over 100 undergraduate majors and 120 graduate programs.
Its Center for Technology and Systems Management, directed by Professor Bilal
Ayyub was founded in 1996 to leverages the expertise of both in-house experts
and external associates to offer the capabilities for making intelligent
decisions in areas of systems engineering that encompasses functional modeling,
technology forecasting and assessment, human and organizational factors, and
expert opinion elicitation; reliability, risk, statistical and decision studies
that include risk analysis and management, risk-based regulation development,
risk profiling, modeling and analysis, risk-based decision making,
multi-criteria ranking and decision making, as well as failure, crash and
accident investigation including forensic engineering; and project management
that includes scheduling with network optimization and equilibrium problems.
http://www.ctsm.umd.edu
About
the A. James Clark School of Engineering
The Clark
School of Engineering, situated on the rolling, 1,500-acre University of
Maryland campus in College Park, Md., is one of the premier engineering schools
in the U.S., with graduate and undergraduate education programs ranked in or
near the Top 20. In 2012, the Clark School was ranked 14th in the world by the
Institute of Higher Education and Center for World-Class Universities in its
Academic Ranking of World Universities. Three faculty members affiliated with
the Clark School were inducted into the National Academy of Engineering in
2010.
The
school, which offers 13 graduate programs and 12 undergraduate programs,
including degree and certification programs tailored for working professionals,
is home to one of the most vibrant research programs in the country. The Clark
School garnered research awards of $171 million last year. With emphasis in key areas such as energy,
nanotechnology and materials, bioengineering, robotics, communications and
networking, life cycle and reliability engineering, project management,
intelligent transportation systems and aerospace, the Clark School is leading
the way toward the next generations of engineering advances.
